England and Wales gained an estimated 224,900 residents in the year to June 2025, but that increase concealed sharply different movements among age groups and between local authorities.
The population of England rose by 227,600, or 0.4%, to 58.8 million. Wales moved in the opposite direction: its population fell by approximately 2,800, or 0.1%, to 3.18 million, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Across the two countries, the number of children declined while the population aged 65 and over continued to expand.
England had 93,200 fewer children aged 15 and under than a year earlier, a fall of 0.9%. Wales had 8,700 fewer children, a fall of 1.6%.
Over the same period, England’s population aged 65 and over increased by 216,200, or 2.0%. Wales added 10,800 residents in that age group, an increase of 1.6%.
The number of people aged between 16 and 64 increased by 104,600 in England but fell by 4,800 in Wales. The median age reached 40.6 years in England and 43.2 years in Wales.
These are estimates of the usually resident population on 30 June 2025. They are not projections of what will happen next. (ons.gov.uk)
Politicsphere’s local-authority analysis
Politicsphere analysed the ONS mid-2024 and mid-2025 population estimates by single year of age for 318 unitary authorities, London boroughs, metropolitan districts and non-metropolitan districts in England and Wales.
For each area, we calculated the annual change in three broad groups:
- children aged 0 to 15
- residents aged 16 to 64
- residents aged 65 and over
County-level and regional aggregates were excluded from the council rankings to avoid counting the same residents twice.
The analysis shows that the national fall in the number of children was not concentrated in only a handful of places. It was widespread, although its scale varied considerably.
It also shows that population growth does not necessarily mean growth across every generation. Several councils gained residents overall while simultaneously recording fewer children.
Where the child population fell fastest
Among local authorities with at least 50,000 residents, Westminster recorded the largest proportional fall in children between mid-2024 and mid-2025.
Its estimated population aged 0 to 15 fell by 2,078, or 7.9%.
Camden followed with a decrease of 2,348 children, equivalent to 7.6%. Kensington and Chelsea recorded a 7.2% fall, while Cambridge’s child population declined by 6.4%.
Largest proportional falls in children
| Rank | Local authority | Change in children | Percentage change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Westminster | −2,078 | −7.9% |
| 2 | Camden | −2,348 | −7.6% |
| 3 | Kensington and Chelsea | −1,445 | −7.2% |
| 4 | Cambridge | −1,392 | −6.4% |
| 5 | Southwark | −3,022 | −6.2% |
| 6 | Newham | −4,495 | −6.0% |
| 7 | Oxford | −1,460 | −5.7% |
| 8 | Ealing | −3,883 | −5.3% |
| 9 | Hounslow | −3,139 | −5.2% |
| 10 | Southampton | −2,205 | −5.2% |
Source: Politicsphere analysis of ONS mid-year population estimates for 2024 and 2025. Authorities with fewer than 50,000 residents were excluded from this ranking.
The concentration of London boroughs in the table is notable. It does not, however, establish why their child populations fell.
Possible factors include changes in births, families moving between local authorities, international migration and revisions to estimated population patterns. Determining the contribution of each factor requires examining the ONS components-of-change data and, where available, birth and school-roll records.
Newham illustrates why total population growth alone can be misleading. Its estimated child population fell by 4,495, but its working-age population increased by 5,419 and its population aged 65 and over rose by 1,095. Its total population therefore still increased by 0.5%.
In other words, Newham grew, but it did not grow evenly across age groups.
The fastest growth in older residents was not confined to coastal England
Coastal and rural areas continue to have some of the highest proportions of older residents. However, the fastest annual percentage increases in the population aged 65 and over were recorded mainly in London.
Kensington and Chelsea’s population aged 65 and over increased by 1,172, or 5.3%. Hackney recorded growth of 4.9%, while Lewisham and Southwark both exceeded 4.4%.
Fastest growth in residents aged 65 and over
| Rank | Local authority | Change aged 65+ | Percentage change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kensington and Chelsea | +1,172 | +5.3% |
| 2 | Hackney | +1,116 | +4.9% |
| 3 | Lewisham | +1,425 | +4.6% |
| 4 | Southwark | +1,287 | +4.5% |
| 5 | Haringey | +1,318 | +4.4% |
| 6 | Lambeth | +1,305 | +4.3% |
| 7 | Hammersmith and Fulham | +879 | +4.3% |
| 8 | Waltham Forest | +1,271 | +4.2% |
| 9 | Westminster | +1,115 | +4.2% |
| 10 | Fylde | +1,027 | +4.1% |
Source: Politicsphere analysis of ONS mid-year population estimates for 2024 and 2025. Authorities with fewer than 50,000 residents were excluded.
This ranking measures the rate of annual growth, not the proportion of each council’s population that is elderly.
Those are different questions.
Many London boroughs are starting from comparatively younger age profiles. A rapid percentage increase in their older populations does not mean they have overtaken established retirement areas in the overall share of residents aged 65 and over.
Coastal and rural authorities still have the oldest populations
North Norfolk had the largest share of residents aged 65 and over among the local authorities analysed. Approximately 35.6% of its estimated population was in that age group in mid-2025.
The equivalent share exceeded 30% in Rother, East Lindsey, New Forest, Dorset, the Isle of Wight, East Devon, West Devon and Torridge.
Areas with the largest population share aged 65 and over
| Rank | Local authority | Residents aged 65+ | Share of population |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Norfolk | 37,597 | 35.6% |
| 2 | Rother | 32,574 | 33.2% |
| 3 | East Lindsey | 48,530 | 32.2% |
| 4 | New Forest | 56,387 | 31.3% |
| 5 | Dorset | 120,890 | 31.2% |
| 6 | Isle of Wight | 44,559 | 31.0% |
| 7 | East Devon | 46,702 | 30.6% |
| 8 | West Devon | 17,484 | 30.5% |
| 9 | Torridge | 21,523 | 30.4% |
| 10 | Derbyshire Dales | 21,844 | 29.9% |
Source: Politicsphere analysis of ONS mid-2025 population estimates.
These figures describe the age structure of the resident population. They do not directly measure demand for adult social care, hospital treatment or general practice services.
Age is an important factor in service planning, but demand also depends on health, deprivation, disability, household structure, care provision and the way services are organised locally.
Where the working-age population fell fastest
The decline in residents aged 16 to 64 was particularly pronounced in a mixture of Welsh authorities, coastal communities and large English urban areas.
Middlesbrough recorded the largest proportional fall among authorities with at least 50,000 residents. Its working-age population declined by an estimated 2,940, or 3.0%.
Lincoln followed with a 1.9% fall. The Isle of Wight, Neath Port Talbot and the Isle of Anglesey each recorded decreases of approximately 1.5%.
Largest proportional falls in residents aged 16 to 64
| Rank | Local authority | Change aged 16–64 | Percentage change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | −2,940 | −3.0% |
| 2 | Lincoln | −1,352 | −1.9% |
| 3 | Isle of Wight | −1,222 | −1.6% |
| 4 | Neath Port Talbot | −1,350 | −1.5% |
| 5 | Isle of Anglesey | −583 | −1.5% |
| 6 | Merthyr Tydfil | −513 | −1.4% |
| 7 | Portsmouth | −1,945 | −1.4% |
| 8 | Nottingham | −3,104 | −1.3% |
| 9 | Conwy | −838 | −1.3% |
| 10 | Bradford | −4,332 | −1.2% |
Source: Politicsphere analysis of ONS mid-year population estimates for 2024 and 2025. Authorities with fewer than 50,000 residents were excluded.
Several of these places experienced declines in all or most younger age groups while their population aged 65 and over increased.
Middlesbrough lost an estimated 981 children and 2,940 working-age residents, while gaining 555 people aged 65 and over. Its total population fell by approximately 1,905, or 1.2%, between mid-2024 and mid-2025.
The ONS components-of-change table records a net internal migration loss of 3,630 for Middlesbrough, partly offset by net international migration of 1,334 and positive natural change of 397.
The figures therefore suggest that movement to other parts of the UK was an important component of Middlesbrough’s population decline during the year. They do not reveal the personal reasons residents moved.
Wales experienced all three pressures simultaneously
Wales presents the clearest national example of the demographic shift.
Its total population fell by 2,800. Within that total:
- the number of children fell by 8,700
- the population aged 16 to 64 fell by 4,800
- the population aged 65 and over increased by 10,800
The difference was partly explained by natural change. Wales recorded approximately 9,200 more deaths than births. Internal and international migration added residents, but not enough to offset the natural decrease.
Wales also had an old-age-dependency ratio of 336 people of pensionable age for every 1,000 people of working age. England’s ratio was 280.
The ONS uses State Pension age rather than a fixed age of 65 when calculating this measure. It should therefore not be treated as identical to the simpler ratio between residents aged 65+ and those aged 16 to 64. (ons.gov.uk)
London’s total population fell, but its working-age population increased
London was the only English region whose total population declined in the year to mid-2025.
That regional fall did not result from a uniform decline across all age groups. London’s working-age population increased, while the number of children fell.
The local-authority data shows the same pattern in several boroughs.
Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Newham, Ealing, Hounslow and Haringey all recorded fewer children but more working-age residents.
Southwark and Lambeth differed: both lost children and working-age residents while their older populations grew.
The ONS attributed London’s regional population decline principally to net internal migration. More people moved from London to other parts of the UK than moved into the capital from elsewhere in the country. (ons.gov.uk)
What these estimates can—and cannot—tell us
The estimates identify places where the age structure of the population is changing. They do not, on their own, prove that a council is closing schools, running out of GP appointments or facing a social-care crisis.
Those claims require separate evidence.
A fall in the estimated number of children could be compared with:
- school census enrolments
- published admission numbers
- surplus-place estimates
- proposed school closures
- local birth registrations
Growth in older residents could be compared with:
- adult social-care expenditure
- delayed hospital discharges
- home-care capacity
- care-home beds
- GP registrations by age
- unpaid-care estimates
A decline in the working-age population could be examined alongside:
- employment and inactivity rates
- vacancy levels
- earnings
- commuting
- business surveys
- council tax and business-rate income
Until those comparisons are made, it is more accurate to describe the population figures as indicators of potential service and labour-market pressure rather than direct measurements of that pressure.
Why local estimates need cautious interpretation
Local population estimates are more uncertain than national totals, particularly in places with high migration.
The ONS constructs the estimates by taking the previous year’s population, ageing residents forward, adding births, subtracting deaths and estimating internal and international migration.
Migration is the largest source of local uncertainty because the ONS must estimate not only how many people enter or leave the country, but also where they live within England and Wales.
The ONS has published research-based uncertainty intervals alongside the 2025 estimates. In 2021, more than 90% of local authorities had uncertainty ranges narrower than 5% of their estimated populations. By 2025, only around half did.
That does not make the estimates unusable. It means small differences—and especially close rankings—should not be presented as exact measurements or permanent league-table positions. view2
What Politicsphere will examine next
This first analysis establishes where the child, working-age and older populations changed most sharply.
The next stage will test whether those demographic movements are already visible in local services.
Politicsphere will compare the population data with:
- school enrolments and surplus places
- housing delivery and changes in dwelling stock
- GP registrations and practice capacity
- adult social-care spending and provision
- domestic and international migration
- local employment and recruitment indicators
The results will be published separately rather than compressed into a single composite score before the underlying datasets have been tested for comparability.
A demographic-pressure index may eventually be useful, but only if each component has a transparent definition, comparable geography, appropriate time period and defensible weighting.
For now, the clearest finding is also the simplest: across England and Wales, the population is not merely changing in size. Its age structure is moving in different directions, and the speed and composition of that movement vary sharply from one council to another.
Methodology
Politicsphere used the Office for National Statistics publication Estimates of the population for England and Wales: mid-2025, released on 29 July 2026.
The analysis compared the mid-2024 and mid-2025 estimates by single year of age on 2023 local-authority boundaries.
The following age groups were calculated:
- children: ages 0 to 15
- working age: ages 16 to 64
- older population: ages 65 and over
The analysis included 318 unitary authorities, London boroughs, metropolitan districts and non-metropolitan districts.
Regional, national, metropolitan-county and upper-tier county totals were excluded from council rankings to prevent double counting.
Authorities with estimated populations below 50,000 were excluded from percentage-change top-ten tables because small absolute movements can generate unusually large percentage changes. They remain in the underlying dataset.
Percentage changes were calculated using unrounded ONS population estimates:
Percentage change = (mid-2025 population − mid-2024 population) ÷ mid-2024 population × 100
Figures in the article may not sum precisely because displayed values have been rounded.
The rankings describe changes in estimated population. They do not measure causation, service performance or future population change.
Primary source: Office for National Statistics, Estimates of the population for England and Wales: mid-2025, released 29 July 2026.
